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Counter-Strike: ubin's WCG Day 3 Predictions

Oct-07-2007 l

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WCG 2007 has been a wild tournament. While some teams have shown why they are the cream of the crop, some of the giants of 1.6 have been pushed to the limit against some scrappy unknowns. On day one, PGS struggled against the Greek squad SouthPark (also losing to the Russian pug KPOBb), and MYM fell flat against Belarus' representatives, Ultimo. Day two saw much of the same, with NoA losing to the highly underrated French team, emuLate, and almost getting upset by k23, having to battle back from an 11-4 deficit as CTs on dust2. And of course, possibly the biggest surprise of them all, the great Swedes, fnatic, have nothing left to do now but spectate what could have been.

And that was just in group play.

The bracket looks to be just as exciting, although, with the best of three format, the likelihood of an upset is greatly reduced. Even so, most of the first round matchups should be equally thrilling.

WCG 2007 Finals

1st Round Predictions
KPOBb vs Cyber Nets Online	The Virtus.pro pug is on fire. Any team that can beat PGS is on fire, in my book. Sure, some may say that PGS was saving strats or were not trying very hard, but you still have to be impressed by a win that big over the Polish. If Sally can bring that type of play throughout the rest of the tournament, they really could shake things up in Seattle. While CNO almost pulled an upset on a weak looking Roccat in their group, they could not close out the game for the win. The Russians are playing too well to lose this early, and they should advance in their bracket in two maps. ubin's prediction: KPOBb > CNO 2-0
eMazing Gaming vs Artyk	Che played absolutely out of his mind against Amazing Gaming. From the outstanding 1v3 eco, to a great 4 kill in the inside bombsite, he kept his team undefeated in group play. Hostile seems to be fitting in well so far, although there obviously is going to be some chemistry issues when you lose a long time teammate like Lim. Artyk is one of the two teams that advanced from the terrible group F, and the Peru team will be defeated handily by eMg. As a team that plays so much based on momentum, a convincing win could help them a lot going into the second round. ubin's prediction: eMg > Artyk 2-0
Made in Brazil vs Ultimo	Mibr tied a surprisingly weak (and sloppy) fnatic team, they lost to eSTRO's fast flanking inferno, and, unless they can make some changes, they will not advance far into bracket play. While Gaules and Lance have played pretty well, fnx needs to play way more up to his potential if they hope take a title at WCG. On inferno, after eSTRO adjusted to their T side, they got completely shut down because of their reliance on individual plays, losing way too many players entering sites and hoping to win 2v3s/2v4s. If they keep playing like that they won't advance far, although I believe they'll win this match. While Ultimo upset an element-less MYM, I feel that they just got lucky. Since this is best of three, I could see Ultimo winning one map (probably inferno), but besides that mibr should be able take them down. ubin's prediction: mibr > Ultimo 2-1
wNv.cn vs NoA	wNv beating a good team at an event OUTSIDE of China? What in the world is happening! The cn squad seems to rely a lot more on team work, as opposed to the jungle driven gm squad, which possibly could be the cause of this so far successful tournament. NoA played awful on dust2 in group play, and unless k23 didn't have the most colossal collapse I have ever seen in a single half of counter-strike, they would have been sent home early. Could NoA be, dare I say, overrated? That will be answered in this first round, where we will see NoA be challenged on a map other than dust2, and find out what they are really made of. To win, NoA is going to have to keep their composure versus the Chinese and not get peak happy. The Chinese thrive on teams trying to be aggressive by being overly aggressive themselves with tons of flashes, and, unless NoA can reform their dust2 play style overnight, they're already going to be at a huge disadvantage on one map. In an extremely close matchup, I see wNv advancing over NoA, dropping one map along the way. ubin's prediction: wNv.cn > NoA 2-1
Roccat vs PGSPokerStrategy	Roccat looked weak in group play, but so did Pentagram. The difference is that neo has not gone off in a match yet. In their loss against the Russians, neo disappeared, not stepping up at all. This could be because he had an off day, but I think it's because neo simply didn't care. PGS overall is so confident in their play that they could care less who they are put in the bracket, and because of this they didn't have to go all out in group play. Pentagram will be looking to show everyone at the tournament that they're the real deal, with the match against roccat being the example. Lurppis's squad just seems to not handle big games well, except for at WSVG Kentucky 2007, where they played relatively weak teams. A player with so much potential, NASU, seems to always become just a player when the spotlight is on him, as opposed to the superstar he could. PGS will show everyone at the tournament they should be afraid of them, and take this match. ubin's prediction: PGS > Roccat 2-0
sYnck vs Amazing Gaming	To be honest I don't know much about either team, and I'm sure a lot of the gotfrag audience would have rather seen fnatic in bracket play as opposed to one of them. I know nothing about sYnck so I can't make an educated prediction about them, but Amazing Gaming proved they were a decent team at ESWC, where they at least beat a mid tier Begrip.swe team. I'll leave you with a garbage prediction and say sYnck upsets the more well known Amazing Gaming. Gotfrag, you decide! ubin's prediction: sYnck > A-Gaming 2-1
eSTRO vs MYM	So when I wrote my prediction for the WCG preview, I thought eSTRO was going to flop in their group and go home early. I thought they may have had a chance to advance over mibr, but going undefeated and leaving fnatic out of bracket play? I don't think anyone predicted that. eSTRO seems to have finally gotten it together, bringing back their overly aggressive, fast aim tactics that made them so good in 2006. With a reinvigorated solo, along with great play from miffy and bail, eSTRO is looking like a championship caliber team. But one thing, they need termi to play better. To put it frankly, he has been awful so far. MYM is without element, which makes them a far weaker team. Sure juven9le is good, in fact he's great. But element is a player that can emotionally keep his team in the game, and, although he isn't the most impressive fragger, he gets the frags that put his team into winning positions. Such an integral player will always be missed and surly hurt the team's chemistry. eSTRO looks too good to lose, especially on inferno, and I could see them making me eat my words all the way to the finals. An interesting note is the creative use of flashes eSTRO has, which allows them to push into spots that allow them to gain control over maps as CTs. Look for that to frustrate MYM, and cause their demise. ubin's prediction: eSTRO > MYM 2-0
emuLate vs Team Germany	I think this will be one of the best matches in the first round, simply due to the completely different play styles of the two teams. The best way I can describe emuLate's tactics is to bore the other team to death. No seriously, they don't make decisions until late into rounds, and even if they get a pick they will go back and forth around the map until they are sure they can take a site. But this strategy works very well for them, especially for one player in particular: mSx. He is a monster for emuLate, dropping 26 frags in a single half against NoA (I believe it was 29 overall with 1 plant), and doing well in all of his other matches. That's pretty impressive, although it was diminished when I saw k23 almost beat NoA on the very same map. On the other end of the spectrum, the German team likes to constantly move in their strats. They play almost like the Asian teams, using their aim and overall player chemistry to create plays for them, but they do so in a more sneaky and smarter fashion than the all out barrage the Asian teams use. I think that emuLate is going to be a dark horse again, similar to what they did at GameGune. They will have a good chance at beating the Germans because of their discipline. The Germans will have to respect their slow play, and by doing so it forces them to play out of their own style. This will frustrate them, and, being a very emotional squad, they will never build up the momentum they'll need to win. Germany has a chance, though. emuLate looked weak on train in group play, as well as nuke from their qualifier, but I feel that emuLate's play style will win them this match. ubin's prediction: emL > GERMANY 2-